Presentation to the Dona Ana County Commission, Tuesday, September 13th: How hot will it get in Las Cruces? Three students of the Las Cruces Academy – Arezou and Setareh Sibley and Morgan G. – and computer programming teacher Dr. Vince Gutschick presented a deep study to the Dona Ana County Commission. They did the work over a full semester last school year. Coding in the Python language, they analyzed almost 100 years of daily high temperatures on the Jornada Experimental Range just north of Las Cruces. Using the advanced statistics of extreme events, they calculated the probabilities of very high temperatures, extending to temperatures higher than observed so far. There is a small probability, equivalent to an occurrence every 25 years, of another 1 degree Fahrenheit upward in the extreme highs. Intriguingly, the probability seems not to be increasing, even as average temperatures rise from global warming. The students and the whole school thank the Commission for the opportunity to present their work, especially Commissioner Shannon Reynolds of District 3, who offered the invitation.
Arezou presentingWith the Commissioners